Six players you should be drafting in your fantasy football home leagues
Some of my favorite players I am drafting in the 2025 fantasy football season!
With more and more fantasy football coverage, it’s hard to find sleepers in the true sense of the word. Every proclaimed "sleeper" most likely has a five tweet X thread on why he is being drafted too late.
That said, I didn’t want to sell anyone on that same old narrative. The basis around my selection was if I like the player and their price. That especially true in home leagues where there is much more variance between picks. So without further ado, here are 6 players you should be targeting in your home leagues (All Draft Position Data courtesy of Fantasy Pros, Half PPR scoring).
QB: Justin Fields, New York Jets
Current ADP: 100th overall; QB14
My Rankings: 91st overall; QB6
As a Bears fan who was an advocate of moving on from Fields, this feels weird to have him 8 spots ahead of his current ADP. There aren’t many other QBs who present the scoring floor and ceiling that Fields does.
It’s important that we do not confuse real football with fantasy production. Since 2022, Fields has always finished as a top 10 QB in points per game (when removing games he played less than 90% of the snaps).
Fields posts such favorable fantasy production despite clear limitations as a passer because of what he does with his legs. He has finished in the top 7 among QBs in rush attempts per game in every season of his career. That is exactly what we want in fantasy.
I expect Aaron Glenn to bring over a similar run first approach from Detroit to New York. I’d also imagine that Fields is a major part of that rushing attack. His dynamic rushing skills have shined wherever he has been. He is at his best when the offense is built around his legs.
Running for 10 yards to score a fantasy point is much easier to throw for 25 yards to score 1 point. That is why the top QBs drafted in fantasy all having rushing upside (not breaking news). Fields is the only QB close to Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts (top 40 picks) as rushers. Yet, he is going around 60-80 picks later than them.
If I miss out on any of the top guys, Fields is the one that I want. His rushing ability is much safer to me than the pocket passers that need to run pure through the air. I will continue to smash the draft button at his cost. Even if away if his ADP rises as the season gets closer.
RB: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Current ADP: 47th Overall; RB17
My Rankings: 38th Overall; RB13
Chuba Hubbard was one of the best values in 2024. His ADP was 128th and clobbered that finishing as the 40th overall player (half PPR). Even with the price adjusted in 2025, he is still going too late.
The Panthers ended their season with optimism because of the success they had on offense. However, many forget just how bad they were for the majority of 2024. That was especially true on defense.
The Panthers defense was historically bad. For context, their defense allowed the most EPA per since 2020. Their inability to get off the field and keep games close held the offense back in a big way.
Carolina was 31st in average time of possession and 27th in team rush attempts. They were usually trailing in games and trying to pass their way back in them. These types of game scripts are not favorable to running backs because teams run the ball more when they are in lead.
Despite being in such crumby situations, Hubbard was still 8th in rush attempts per game (among RBs). That number should only go up in 2025. The Panthers were major spenders in free agency and used 2 of their top 100 picks to address their defense.
I am not saying that we should expect them to be the reincarnation of the 85 Bears, but it’s fair to anticipate some improvement from this group. Hubbard will be the number 1 beneficiary if that happens. If Panthers are in the lead more, he will be the one to close out games.
In addition, the Panthers took real strides as an offense with Bryce Young. After their bye week, they were 7th in EPA per play. If you are buying into that ascension like me, that means he should see even more touchdown opportunities.
What Hubbard lacks as a pass catcher, he should make up with in rushing volume and touchdowns. He is a massive buy at his current ADP as the RB17 for these reasons. There is a legit path to a top 10 RB finish and I will hammer that outside the top 45.
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RB: Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears
Current ADP: 174th Overall; RB53
My Rankings: 130th Overall
This one is a bit of shot call here. Let me start off by saying, I am not nor have ever been a fan of Roschon Johnson. This is not a guy I had super high priors on and am all the sudden expecting to breakout.
I am including him on this list because of his situation. The Bears only made one RB addition this offseason and that was 7th round pick Kyle Monagai. That can tell us only one of 2 things. The first, this new Bears staff believes D’Andre Swift is an every down work horse. Or, that they view Roschon Johnson as a capable complimentary back to Swift.
I expect the ladder because we saw how Ben Johnson views D’Andre Swift during their time with the Lions. When Ben Johnson took over as the full time offensive coordinator in Detroit, Swifts’s carries decreased from 151 to 99.
He especially saw a lighter workload with runs between the tackles going from 66 attempts to 41. That is where Rojo will fit into this offense. He profiles into that Jamaal Williams role. Like Williams, he should be better equipped a good share of the early down ground and pound work.
I don’t think Swift will get phased out nearly to the degree that he did in 2022. He will probably be the lead back in touches when it’s all said and done. However, Roschon Johnson could still crush his current 174th price tag if he can secure the goal line job away from Swift.
In that same 2022 season Jamaal Williams had 38 goal line attempts to Swift’s 9! Even when looking at the 2024 Bears, Rojo converted 6/7 goal line carries into touchdowns to whereas Swift only converted 3/16. It’s a clear strength for Rojo, and a clear weakness for Swift.
The goal line role in what should be a much improved offense plus some early down work could make for a viable flex. Fantasy is all about drafting players who exceed their ADP, and that is very much in the realm of possibilities for Roschon Johnson.
In a year where RBs are being pushed back up the board, he is one of my favorite late round picks. Monagai could also be worth a last round flyer for the same reasons.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Current ADP: 13th Overall, WR7
My Rankings: 12th overall, WR4
After another season of elite production, it seems impossible to be too low on Nico Collins. He is one of the greatest risers from last year jumping from 28th to 13th. That said, there are still too many receivers going ahead of him.
Outside of the big 3 receivers at the top of drafts (Chase, Lamb and Jefferson), Collins is the receiver I want in the first round. Before Collins got hurt in week 5, he was on pace to finish as the WR3.
That was with the added target competition of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Now, his only competition are two day 2 rookies, and Christian Kirk who the Jags dumped for a 7th round pick. He was already the clear alpha before the Texans receiver additions and that is even clearer now.
What inspires me beyond the lack of target competition is Houston’s hire at offensive coordinator. Nick Caley is coming over from the Rams. That staff might do the most in terms of pre snap movement, and alignment to scheme up easy targets for their best players.
That wasn’t happening in Houston over the past 2 years. Nico Collins was very much used as a static X receiver and was still able to produce at an elite level. I am not expecting Caley to become the next Sean McVay, but I do expect him to implement more of the easy gimmes for Collins.
Think about what we saw in Atlanta with Drake London. Zac Robinson came over from the Rams and gave London much more favorable looks with similar concepts. London’s numbers took a huge jump. Could you imagine if Collins’s numbers took even a little jump? That could be the WR1 type of production.
At the very least, I can’t see Collins’s situation being any worse. The same cannot be said for receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown who lost Ben Johnson, or Malik Nabers with a murky QB situation. Collins was already top 6 in PPG over the past 2 years. I see no reason why that’s changing in 2025. It’s only up from here!
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Current ADP: 69th Overall, WR31
My Rankings: 50th Overall, WR22
Jaylen Waddle is regarded as one of the worst fantasy picks of the 2024 season. He posted career lows in yards, receptions and touchdowns. So, why I am I bullish on a bounce back in 2025?
Well, I am always about buying low on players coming off of down seasons. That is especially true for receivers who are in the prime of their careers. I like Waddle even more because his running mate for the past 3 years, Tyreek Hill, showed real signs of decline in 2024.
Both of the Dolphins receivers were hurt by their starting QB’s absence and offensive scheme change. So, their numbers may be skewed due to some factors being out of their control. Even when filtering out the games without Tua Tagovailoa, Hill's numbers were unrecognizable.
The stat that stood out to me was vertical target percentage. Hill has been able to break fantasy football because of his ability to score touchdowns from anywhere on the field. That flat out wasn’t the case in 2024.'
He tied for a career low in deep receptions and had his lowest vertical target rate of his Dolphins tenure. The tape and Next Gen separation numbers confirm these struggles. Trending down after the age of 30 is usually a sign that the end of a prime is near. As you can see from this graph, Hill returning to his old self is an outlier outcome.
That is where Waddle comes in. I am not making the claim that he will takeover for Hill’s Hall of Fame production. Yet, I do believe there is a legitimate chance he closes the gap as Miami's top target. People forget how good Waddle was in 2022 and 2023 because he was in the shadow of some the greatest WR seasons in NFL history.
I am more confident in a Waddle bounce back season because he is entering the age range where receivers post their best seasons. With context in mind, he isn’t even being drafted as a WR2 at the moment. Give me a receiver at the WR31 price tag who before last year never finished outside the WR22 in PPG.
Not to mention, Jonnu Smith was just traded! That’s 109 targets out the door that have to go somewhere. I am sure Waddle’s price will see a bump but as long as he is available in the 5th or 6th round, I will still be buying him as much as I can!
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Current ADP: 103rd Overall, TE9
My Rankings: 88th Overall, TE5
Are we really about to in fade David Njoku for a 3rd year in a row? All he does is produce like a top TE and continues to slip through the fantasy cracks.
The Browns have started 7 different QBs over the last 2 seasons. Njoku has been one of the only bright spots to shine through such a volatile situation, ranking as the TE6 in PPG. When you look even deeper in that span, Njoku was averaging in 12.5 PPG in games without Deshaun Watson. That mark would rank as the TE1 in 2023 and TE3 in 2024.
Everyone’s major concern with Brownies is their clown car for a QB situation in 2025. I will in no way try to spin it in a positively. I understand the concern. However, it has already been terrible, especially with Watson. In fact, his best stretch of his career was with Joe Flacco, who is now on the Browns roster again.
I am sure we will see a mix all of the QBs in this competition. So, I am not trying pose it as Flacco’s show. My point is I can’t see it being worse than what it’s already been. Regardless who has been under center, Njoku has been someone Kevin Stefanski has deliberately tried to get the ball to.
He ranked top 6 in target rate among TEs the last 2 years and led the Browns in targets per game in 2024. If I am addressing TE later in drafts, those are the kind of stats I am looking for. Volume. It might not be pretty, but that kind of volume will get it done at such a crap shoot position.
I don’t expect that volume to disappear this season. The Browns messaging has been that they want to get back to running the ball. That might sound great in theory, but they are still slated to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. I expect them to be trailing quite a bit, and Njoku will be a beneficiary of pass heavy game scripts.
For those who are not willing to spend the premium on Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kittle, Njoku is the exact bet I want to make. I don’t feel that much better about the non top 3 to spend round 6-8 capital. To where I can have Njoku in the 100s.
My league mates can have the “TE1s” in the early rounds. I’ll be taking swings on the league winning WRs and RBs. I have no issues piecing it together at TE in the late rounds with David Njoku.